The Results Are In

Hello! Remember 2 weeks ago I did Another Prayer Experiment?

If you recall:

• I prayed to the Abrahamic god for Butch to have his job situation improve (a promotion that was promised over a year ago to come through but didn't)¹


• I prayed to my computer, Einstein for my friend Jeff to sell an item for exactly $850 that he had purchased in a box lot for $5.  ²


• I also "prayed" (or had a talk with) myself to encourage myself to get off the weight loss plateau I had been on for about a week, to lose another pound.

The time frame was 13 days from when I prayed till May 1st. I didn't want it to be open ended because then there's no control in the experiment and it's too easy to post hoc rationalize some kind of false result, which I think is very common with prayers.

Drum roll, please!

• Butch didn't get his promotion. There was absolutely nothing that improved at his work, in fact his job satisfaction is still really low.


• Jeff didn't sell anything for $850. He didn't sell anything even marginally close to this amount.


• I lost a pound! In fact I lost 1.5 pounds!³

So, prayer to the Abrahamic god is just as effective as prayer to my computer at ZERO percent. Meaning completely INeffective. Although I would say in future studies both would be as good as chance.

But having a heart to heart with yourself and then taking action is, according to these results, quite effective! In fact, with this preliminary study, it was 100% effective. Of course, this was really a pilot study, so if you want to run the experiment yourself we can pool the data and come to better conclusions.

1. The chances of this promotion happening without something drastically changing were basically nil. I didn't tell Butch what I was doing in advance.


2. The chances of Jeff selling an item for exactly $850 that he had bought in a box lot were extremely slim, but not impossible. I didn't tell him the prayer in advance.


3. The chances of me increasing my exercise, reducing my caloric intake, and getting off the plateau I was on were fair, but not guaranteed by any means. I had a really hard time losing the pound! Full Disclosure: Unfortunately, I went to a potluck on Sunday, May 1st. I woke up Monday morning, after the experiment was over, 2 lbs heavier. Sigh!

The 10 Commandments of Logical Fallacies

1. Thou shall not attack the person’s character, but the argument. (Ad hominem)

2. Thou shall not misrepresent or exaggerate a person’s argument in order to make them easier to attack. (Straw man fallacy)

3. Thou shall not use small numbers to represent the whole. (Hasty generalization)

4. Thou shall not argue thy position by assuming one of its premises is true. (Begging the question)

5. Thou shall not claim that because something occurred before, it must be the cause. (Post Hoc/False cause)

6. Thou shall not reduce the argument down to two possibilities. (False dichotomy)

7. Thou shall not argue that because of our ignorance, claim must be true or false. (Ad ignorantium)

8. Thou shall not select only the supporting information and ignore everything that goes against the claim. (Cherry-picking)

9. Thou shall not assume “this” follows “that” when it has no logical connection. (Non sequitur)

10. Thou shall not claim that because a premise is popular, therefore it must be true.(Bandwagon fallacy)

Which logical fallacies do you think belong on this list?

Slightly adapted from here.

Logical Fallacy Theater in 4 Acts

Butch, my awesome husband, found the following 4 act play with lobsters in trees. I have added a bit of information for your edumacation enjoyment. Who knew some lobsters were so daft?

Act 1: Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc (after this, therefore because of this). Since the event followed this one, that event must have been caused by this one.